week 2 – The Buffalo Bills remain #1 in the Football Outsiders DVOA rankings after two weeks. This is no surprise. Bills were No. 1 in Our pre-season predictions They had two major victories on prime-time national television. The Buffalo is one of the top ten teams the Football Outsiders have followed with two matches. Everyone knows how good they are now.
|Best DVOA Total
Through the two games, 1981-2022
No, surprise is the second team in DVOA now: the Jacksonville Jaguars!
This is part of a small scale theater of course. The Jaguars are second this early in the season because they took a really big win, crushing the Colts 24-0 last weekend. But what a big win. You may not realize how badly Jaguars stomped all over the ponies. In the end, the Jaguars had a 110.0% DVOA for this game (still without opponent’s adjustments because it’s early in the season) and the Colts at -110.4%.
To what extent does this one match affect the colts’ chances of winning the score? Remember, they were the pre-season favorites in South Asia. How often do teams recover from such an early loss? I went back 20 years and looked up every team that got hit hard in the first three weeks of the season. Since there are no discount adjustments yet, I looked at our numbers without discount adjustments. I made a list of teams that experienced at least one loss in weeks 1-3 with a rating of -100% or worse.
There are 32 teams that have lost like this since 2003, and that doesn’t include the Colts. Only two of those teams rebounded to make the playoffs (2013 49ers and 2020 Browns), although two other teams were ranked seventh in the current format. One team went 8-8, then the other 27 teams lost. Losing that bad is usually an indication that you’re not a very good team.
These are the five teams that got hit early and recovered somewhat:
|Recovering from terrible early losses, 2003-2021|
|year||Team||The Voice of America||Really bad loss||ultimate
|2013||sixth||-103.8%||29-3 to Seattle, Week 2||12-4|
|2020||Total||-109.1%||38-6 to Baltimore, Week 1||11-5|
|2005||minute||-114.0%||37-8 to Cincinnati, week two||9-7|
|2017||Pal||-104.7%||44-7 to Jacksonville, Week 3||9-7|
|2009||Sentences||-115.8%||38-10 to Philadelphia, Week 1||8-8|
Let’s flip it over and take a look at Jaguar cars. Could Jacksonville be on the way to the playoffs in Trevor Lawrence’s second season? Our match odds are sure to like it, as the Jaguar team is exactly 50% to win the score In our latest simulations. It helps that no one else in South Asia has a positive DAVE win or rating. The Colts and Titans are the last two DVOA teams after two games.
Games under -100% are more common than games over 100%, so only 19 teams since 2003 have played more than 100% in the first three weeks of the season. Thirteen of these nineteen teams made it to the playoffs. But greatness was not guaranteed. The other six teams went 8-8 or worse, including last year’s Browns (who dominated the Bears in 26-6 games in Week 3). The 2014 Redskins scored a 41-10 win over Jacksonville in Week 2, but lost the other five of their first six games and finished the season 4-12!
No teams in the past 20 years have had a game above 100% and a game below -100% in the first three weeks.
The Baltimore Ravens are now third in the DVOA despite losing to the Miami Dolphins this weekend. Some readers will be surprised to see Miami all the way in 14th despite its 2-0 record. The attack is definitely not the reason for their low rating, Baltimore and Miami are currently ranked 1-2 DVOA Offensive. The issue is defense and special teams. The special difference is largely the difference between Baltimore and Miami. Both teams are very high in attack and below average in defense, but Baltimore is currently in first place in the specials while Miami is 31. One kick back from Devin Duvernay has a huge impact on that when we’ve only played two games.
That drop in Duvernay is why Baltimore ended up with a DVOA game one higher this week than the Dolphins did. The ratio in Baltimore was 19.0% while Miami was -6.8%. But the gap between the two teams was greater in the formula for predicting victory after the match. Based on PGWE, we were expecting Baltimore to win this game 99% of the time! This makes this the biggest “surprise” win in the past three years, and the first game a team has lost since 2020 despite PGWE’s average over 95%. Why does the regime prefer Baltimore so much?
- Although Miami has a higher offensive rating, 55.5% to 36.6%, the PGWE system gives as much weight to the passing performance as it does the accelerator. Baltimore had the best passing team of the game. Baltimore gained 11.2 yards per pass in this game for 143.5% passing DVOA, with Miami at 9.0 yards per pass for 78.6% passing DVOA. In a way, the Baltimore Ravens are currently number one in the league in passing attack and last death in running attack.
- The special teams gap is about 40 percentage points.
- Miami won this match despite being punished far more than the crows. Baltimore had only two penalties in this match, and only one penalty kick was awarded. Miami had 11 penalties, eight of them for yards.
You may also notice a significant difference between Miami-listed DVOA and unmodified AV. That’s because VOA is unadjusted in the table on this page It differs from DVOA for three different reasons. First, discount adjustments, but these adjustments have not yet taken effect. Second, the effects of the weather on special teams, isn’t a big deal for Miami. Third, recover from a stumble. The Dolphins have recovered from four of the five who have stuck it so far this season and the only one they haven’t recovered from is Lamar Jackson’s confusion at the fourth goal line, so they got the ball rolling after that anyway.
And while we’re on the topic of PGWE, the other big comeback in Week 2 also had a “PGWE Reverse” where the team with the highest PGWE lost the game. The Cleveland Browns had a PGWE of 83% and the Las Vegas Raiders had a PGWE of 61%.
Finally, a brief word on the lowest 2-0 team, the New York Giants. The Giants advanced from 26th to 18th this week with a victory over Carolina. The Giants and Panthers both had a positive DVOA for this week’s 19-16 competition, although this is likely to change once the opponent’s adjustments for both teams kick in. The Giants have one of the lowest DVOA ratings ever for a 2-0 team, which I am Covered in this tweet He will address more in an article for ESPN+ later this week.
* * * * *
A reminder that all of our free stats pages, including DVOA and player site stats, require registration to view. This is not a firewall*! Simply register (it’s free) and then log in to the site to view these pages. While you’re at it, get a seven-day trial of FO+ and check out FO+ features like a deeper DVOA database, weekly fantasy projections, fantasy football research tools, and the new Derrik Klassen. All-32 game preview columnyou choose against the spread.
* New: It is not a firewall, Except On Mondays! As of this week, we are now publishing DVOA data on Monday rather than waiting until Tuesday as in the past. If you want to see data from the current season on Monday, including all matches on Sunday, you’ll need to be a FO+ subscriber. When we publish an update on Tuesday morning with the addition of Monday Night Football, all our free stats pages will be free again. The exception will be surprise numbers, which will still be available to everyone on Monday but will now be updated earlier.
* * * * *
These are the 16 best footballers in two weeks of 2022, measured by our DVOA (Modified Above Average Value) system that breaks down each game and compares the team’s performance to the league average based on the situation in order to determine the above average value. . (It is explained further here.) Please note that there are no discounting adjustments in DVOA until after the fourth week, which is why it is listed here as VOA. click here for the full table.
OFFENSE and DEFENSE VOA are set for performance indoors with all sensitivities, whether kept or lost, considered equal. SPECIAL TEAMS DVOA has been modified for pitch type (warm, cold, dome, denver) and season week. As always, positive numbers count for more points, so defense is better when it’s negative.
DAVE is a formula that combines our forward predictions with current DVOA to get a more accurate projection of how the team will play for the rest of the season. DAVE is currently 85% pre-existing and 15% actual performance. DAVE’s ratings for Dallas and Cleveland are based on expectations for the remainder of the entire season, including games with both starting and reserve quarterbacks. DAVE for Pittsburgh is based on dropping TJ Watt’s comeback mid-season. San Francisco’s DAVE ratings have been revised for quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo.
To save some time for people, please use the following format for all complaints:
it is clear that <فريق> Labeled as <مرتفع جدًا / منخفض جدًا> because <السبب غير مرتبط بـ DVOA>. <نظام الترتيب الذاتي> Much better than this. <تعليق غير ذي صلة يدعم أو ينكر الصواب ويفضل أن يكون بهجاء ضعيف و / أو تهجئة مقبولة للدردشة>