Dolphins at Bengals: time, live stream, how to watch, key matches, Thursday Night Football pick

The Miami Dolphin They have so far passed every test they throw their way. He defeated Bill Belichick patriots In the first week, he returned to defeat Lamar Jackson and Baltimore Ravens In the second week, I beat my favorite Super Bowl buffalo bills From the ranks of the undefeated in the third week. And on Thursday night, their last test came in the form of the Asian champions. Cincinnati Bengals.

Joe Burrow & Co. scores their first win of the season – laugh against New York Jets. They’ve already gone 0-2 against the likes of Mitchell Trubesky Pittsburgh Steelers Cooper Rush Cowboys in Dallas. Therefore, this is likely to be the toughest opponent they will ever face. This is especially true because of the defensive style of Miami plays, which has the potential to cause major problems for the Bengals.

Will the dolphins remain undefeated? Or will the Bengals hand them their first loss of the youth season? We’ll find out soon enough. Before we break down the match, here’s how to watch the match:

how to watch

Date: Thursday, September 29 | time: 8:20 PM ET
Site: PayCor Stadium (Cincinnati)
Stream: Amazon Prime Video
Follow: CBS Sports . app
Prospect: Bengals -4, O/U 47

Featured game | Cincinnati Bengals vs Miami Dolphins

When dolphins have the ball

Early on in the season, the Dolphins are arguably the coolest attacker in the NFL. New head coach Mike McDaniel was San Francisco’s running coordinator and was expected to bring in a Kyle Shanahan-style attack that relied heavily on the concepts of running, playing and illegal passing. Only some of this has happened

Rather than being tired, Miami ranks second in the NFL in success rate over expectations, according to Tru Media. McDaniel has already imported some of Shanahan’s concepts into the running game and especially into the action game, but Dolphins operate out of the gun at a much higher rate and incorporate far more pass option concepts than the previous McDaniel team did – presumably because these are the areas where Tua Tagovailoa feels most comfortable.

All this is working fine so far. Dolphins currently ranks fourth in third-tier conversion rate downhill and the share of their plays gaining 10 yards or more; 3rd place in yards per game and pass rate; 2nd in the EPA for each game and their drive share that exceeded three times; And first in points for each drive. They spread their defenses very thin as fast as they can put them on the field. Tyreek Hill attracts a lot of attention with every shot. Jaylen Waddle benefits. Both open wide throwing lanes over the middle of the field.

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The only thing that doesn’t work at a high level is the running game itself, which is an interesting twist. Neither Chase Edmonds nor Raheem Mostert has been able to get on the right track yet. Part of that is playing against a trio of opponents who are good at stopping runs in the Patriots, Ravens, and Bills. Some of them are offensive line that, while improving, is still below average. And some of the runners themselves don’t do much in the way of breaking tackles or creating post-contact yards.

Although not a quick hit, Miami’s passing attack was elite: Tagoviloa faked 39.1% of his dropouts, the second highest in football. When the Dolphins initially went for the fake run, Tagovailoa completed 19 of 23 passes (82.6%) for 289 yards (12.6 per attempt). He only took one sack on those drop points, and threw the ball 20 yards or more down the field 26.1% of the time. All this and he scored the league’s fourth-best EPA per game average on those plays.

The question in this game is not so much whether the dolphins can find a way to move the ball on the ground, but whether the Cincinnati linebackers and safety can resist the temptation to show up and join the appropriate race for plays when the dolphins are actually throwing the ball. One wrong move and Hill, Waddle, or both will hit you – either over the top or on the go. So far, Tagovailoa has demonstrated the ability to find it in an open space with a high level of consistency. Assuming he’s below center, the only way to prevent this from happening is to take hold of the game in front and deflect him once he reaches the top of his center – a feat made even more difficult by the fact that they work so much away from the gun, and so he doesn’t take as many traditional drops .

When the Bengal has the ball

Cincinnati is coming off its best game of the season, and perhaps it’s no coincidence that after facing the Cover-2 on 36.7% of Joe Burrow’s Week 1 drop against the Steelers and 50% of his Week 2 drop against the Cowboys, the Bengals saw one shot for the Cover-2 Against planes in week 3, according to Tru Media. In those first two games, Burrow was 25 of 34 for 243 yards, three interceptions and an impressive nine sacks against Cover-2. It’s worth noting that Burrow only faced Cover-2 77 times this past season, and it’s possible that the impressive increase early this year was designed to remove some of the “let’s throw it at Ja’Marr Chase in the deep” side stuff that was Very successful for Cincinnati last year.

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The Dolphins have played Cover-2 in 14.6% of passing picks this season, up significantly from last year’s mark of 7.6%. They were basically one high cover team, though, playing Cover-1 or Cover-3 on 57.5% of the shots. They also used Cover-0 with the highest rate in the NFL – 14.6%. It will be interesting to see how defensive coordinator Josh Boyer balances things out in this match. Miami loves blitzkrieg, and could overwhelm what was once a very superior Bengals offensive line by doing so. But the Dolphins may also not need to do all that often to generate pressure on Burrow, and letting more defenders in coverage could allow them to capitalize on more of the high-level stuff that has bothered the Bengals so far this season.

Boyer’s decision is likely to be seen from the prism of second year safety Jevon Holland, who is an absolute threat across the field. In eight pass shots, Holland has three pressures and 1.5 sacks, according to Tru Media. In 129 cover shots, he was targeted only five times, allowing three 37-yard completions and interceptions. He’s lined up as a real free safety often, but according to Pro Football Focus, he also fell in the box at 21 shots, took 17 shots from the hole and played along the defensive line for 15 shots. It is a chess piece whose moves can be used to dictate what the offense should do in any given shot. Alignment usually doesn’t give much away though, as Miami can spin into any number of covers or lightning attacks no matter where it happens beforehand.

Playing more high looks (pre-blitzkrieg, if not necessarily post-blitz) invites opponents and often tempts them to run the ball. Cincinnati has been very unsuccessful in the running game so far this season, scoring 30 yards per carry, EPA per lunge, and DVOA outfield football offense. Joe Mixon averages 2.8 yards per bag, with just 0.91 yards before calling. He has been tackled at or behind the line of scrimmage more often (29.3% of his runs) than he has gained five yards or more (26.7%). In other words, the offensive line change that was supposed to be a dramatic upgrade didn’t work at all. Miami is seventh in DVOA dash defense so far this season, so it seems at least somewhat unlikely that the Bengals will find much of a quick success here.

Instead, the Bengals will likely count on Burrow, Chase, Tee Higgins, Tyler Boyd and Hayden Hurst winning singles in order to get the ball moving. This group, of course, is more than capable of doing exactly that. Especially with second cornerback Byron Jones still sidelined and Xavien Howard playing through soft tissue injury, there could be chances for this crew to cause some damage to the periphery. The Dolphins forced the Bills to dip and snorkel their way down the field throughout the game last week and conceivably they could do the same to the Bengals, but it’s worth noting that this defense was on the field to play NINETY just a few days ago, and could be experiencing some fatigue here .

Prediction: Dolphins 27, Bengals 24

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