NFL Week 1 – The Buffalo Bills opened the 2022 NFL season with a convincing 31-10 opening night victory over the Los Angeles Rams, as they opened the season on top of the Football Outsiders DVOA ratings.
The highlight of our top ratings after one week is how similar they are to our expectations from pre-season. The Rams are obviously a big exception, but other than that most of the top teams in our predictions had a solid week 1. No. 2 Baltimore? Second in pre-season predictions. No. 3 Los Angeles Chargers? Fourth in pre-season predictions. Tampa Bay and Kansas City fill the top five in the DVOA, and both were in the top seven of the pre-season predictions.
(Of course, although I’m calling the DVOA main scale here, it’s actually VOA because there are no discount adjustments at the moment. We don’t apply discount adjustments until after week 4, so in weeks 1-3 DVOA and VOA are the same.)
The similarity between Week 1 and our pre-season predictions means there aren’t many moves in our DAVE ratings. These are the rankings that combine our pre-season predictions with early match results to give us a better prediction of how each team will rank at the end of the year. For those who don’t know the story, this metric is called DAVE in response to criticism that our stats are too much alphabet soup. I mean who can argue with a guy named Dave? (Technically, it stands for “DVOA-adjusted variance early.”) At this week’s DAVE, the pre-season forecast still represents 93% of the rating.
However, the first week did make some switch to DAVE. Note that I’ve made some changes to the show portion of DAVE, which now reflects for Dallas and Pittsburgh that Dak Prescott and TJ Watt will miss half of the season. There are no major climbers, although both Minnesota and Cleveland climb three points. The big drops are rams, cowboys, and cardinals. The Rams went from third in pre-season predictions to tenth at DAVE. The Cowboys, in part because we now expect Cooper Rush to start half the season, drop from 12th in pre-season to 19th in DAVE. The Cardinals went from 21st in the pre-season forecast to 29th in DAVE. ooh!
There’s not much to talk about with DVOA after just one game, so last year I used DVOA’s first week suspension to introduce a new formula called Post-match win predictions (PGWE). This year, I will be introducing a new and improved PGWE formula.
Here’s the basic idea behind PGWE: How often should we expect each team to win an NFL game given how the two teams play overall? We all know that there are close matches where the “wrong team wins”, or at least the wrong team seems to win. This is a measure for that. It’s an idea stolen from Bill Connelly, who does something similar to college football, although PGWE operates a little differently than he does.
The original PGWE was calculated only for VOA divisions (DVOA without discount adjustments). The new PGWE adds two new variants:
1) Which team made more plays, and how many others? Efficiency statistics (such as DVOA) are more predictive than volume, but volume plays an important role in who wins a particular game.
2) Which team has more penalties, and how many more? Penalties are not as predictive as yards from passes and runs, but of course they do play a role in wins and losses. Our penalty count includes both denied and offset penalties.
For a good example of the difference between the new PGWE and the old PGWE, let’s take a look at one of the strangest games of the past year: Tennessee 33-30 overtime win over Seattle Back in week 2. This is the 2021 game with the biggest difference between the new and old formula. The two teams had similar days on the ground but Seattle was more efficient through the air, with 68.8% of the vote passed versus 39.2% in Tennessee. Overall, the Seahawks outperformed the Titans per game, 7.6 to 6.4. So the old formula gave the Seahawks a PGWE of 79%.
However, this game was a really good example of last year’s weird Seattle attack that consisted of almost nothing but deep grenades, triples and coins. So Seattle was more effective on a per-game basis but only made 52 plays compared to the Titans’ 82! The Seahawks also committed 12 penalties compared to just five for the Titans. Add these stats with the new PGWE formula, and now we’re listing Seattle with PGWE at just 20%. If the VOA difference is not too big, the team with more plays and penalties is more likely to win. It makes sense, doesn’t it?
Overall, the new PGWE system does a better job of relating actual winners and losers. The old system had a .79 correlation with wins during the 2020-2021 seasons. The new system has something to do with the .82, so it’s a little better. For the seven games of 2021 with a bigger gap between the old and new PGWE, the new PGWE is changing things in the right direction. But as you are about to see, the transition from the old system to the new one does not happen Always Make things more accurate.
Here are the PGWE numbers for the first week of the 2022 season. Houston-Indianapolis was a tie of course, but Houston had a slightly higher PGWE as shown below. There are some surprising results here:
As you can see, not all games nearby are created equal when it comes to PGWE. There are a few surprises at the bottom here, sure, but let me start by looking at the surprise at the top: The Charger ended up being 99% PGWE despite beating the Raiders by just five points. It’s great that the Raiders stay in this game even though the Chargers have a huge advantage in the scrolling game. Chargers had a 60.6% VOA compared to -36.5% for the Invaders. The Chargers were getting 8.1 yards per pass with the Raiders at 6.0 net yards per pass, plus the Raiders had three interceptions. And the Three fumble while scrolling: two on the bags, and one on the reception. The Raiders were a bit lucky by recovering all three of those bugs. The Chargers also made a few more plays than the Raiders, although they had an additional penalty. In this regard, VOA is the main reason why PGWE loves the Chargers and feels like it beat the Raiders by more than the bottom line indicates.
On the other hand, we achieved the Giants victory in the last second over the Titans. This was also a close match, but in this match, PGWE feels that the losing team has outdone the winning team. Again, plays and penalty kicks were similar between the two teams, so VOA ratings account for this result. The overall gap between the two teams is not very large. Titans had 12.5% VOA attack and Giants had 4.6% VOA attack. The Giants were a little better on the specials too. However, historically, when building the PGWE system, I’ve found passing VOA tends to be about three times as important as running VOA when it comes to predicting a match winner. It wasn’t in this game, sure, but that’s why PGWE says we can most likely expect the Titans to win this game based on how teams play. Tennessee with 78.9% of the vote passed VOA and -44.5% implemented VOA. On the other hand, the Giants passed -12.9% VOA and 32.6% ran VOA. Yes, that’s some difference there! It’s been a big comeback week for Sacon Barkley.
The Giants ended up with the lowest vocal rating of any of the winning teams in the first week. We’ve controversially predicted that the Giants are the worst team in the league, and their victory in the first week certainly reduces the likelihood of the Giants being selected. No. 1 in general. However, the Giants weren’t particularly good in the first week, and there’s no reason to believe they’re suddenly an above-average team based on their performance in the first week.
I said that switching from the old system to the new one isn’t always more accurate, and a good example of this comes in the Pittsburgh turmoil in Cincinnati (also Covered here any Sunday). Pittsburgh had -17.0% VOA attack while Cincinnati had -33.0% VOA attack. The Steelers also had better private teams, although both teams miss out on the value of those missed field goals in overtime. Put these two things together, and the old system predicted Pittsburgh winning 86% of the time. However, the new system actually says the Bengals are the team most likely to win this game with 61% PGWE. why? The Bengals managed 94 plays as opposed to just 59 for the Steelers, and the Steelers had nine penalty kicks with only five for the Bengals! Given these two stats, Pittsburgh’s eventual win was a bit of a surprise.
We look forward to introducing more PGWE numbers in this column and elsewhere throughout the season; if you buy Outdoor football calendar 2022And, you know, those numbers were also added to the table in each quarter which looked back at each team’s performance in 2021 on a week by week basis.
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football strangers Play-off odds It is updated during the first week. Annual stats pages are now updated with 2022 data, although some of this data can be somewhat sketchy after just one week (in particular offensive line And the line of defense pages). Snap counts and the entire FO + DVOA database are now also updated within the first week.
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These are the top 16 footballers in one week of 2022, measured by our DVOA (Modified Above Average Value) system that breaks down each game and compares the team’s performance to the league average based on the situation in order to determine the above value. average. (It is explained further here.) Please note that there are no discounting adjustments in DVOA until after the fourth week, which is why it is listed here as VOA.
OFFENSE and DEFENSE VOA are set for performance indoors with all sensitivity, whether kept or lost, considered equal. SPECIAL TEAMS DVOA has been modified for pitch type (warm, cold, dome, denver) and season week. As always, positive numbers count for more points, so defense is better when it’s negative.
DAVE is a formula that combines our forward predictions with current DVOA to get a more accurate projection of how the team will play for the rest of the season. DAVE is currently 93% pre-existing and 7% actual performance. DAVE ratings for Dallas and Cleveland are based on expectations for the remainder of the entire season, including games with both starting and reserve quarterbacks. DAVE for Pittsburgh is based on dropping TJ Watt’s comeback mid-season.
To save some time for people, please use the following format for all complaints:
it is clear that <فريق> Labeled as <مرتفع جدًا / منخفض جدًا> because <السبب غير مرتبط بـ DVOA>. <نظام الترتيب الذاتي> Much better than this. <تعليق غير ذي صلة يدعم أو ينكر الصواب ويفضل أن يكون بهجاء ضعيف و / أو تهجئة مقبولة للدردشة>